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Coronavirus – Are the Numbers of Cases Reliable?

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Right now, we are being told that the novel coronavirus that causes the Covid-19 disease is such an existential threat to all of us that we need extreme measures to deal with it.  More than half the world’s population is bunkered down at home under effective house arrest; a form of medical martial law prevails of the streets; most “nonessential” shops and businesses are closed; and trust and social contact between people has almost completely broken down.  So is the threat from the new disease worthy of these unprecedented consequences?

Let’s take a close look at the figures.  A good source of official data which is updated regularly is the Worldometers Coronavirus page..  The latest figures here as of the time of writing (25th April 2020) are shown by the following summary snapshot from the site:

So, at this time we have more than two and a quarter million cases and more than 150,000 deaths.  That sounds pretty bad, right?  But we can only put this into context if we compare with the numbers for deaths and cases from other, broadly similar diseases and, for deaths, by comparing with global death rates as a whole.

I will return to the subject of death rates later, but firstly let’s concentrate on case numbers: how are these numbers being calculated?  We hear a lot about testing of suspected cases, but what do we know about these tests?

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The first thing to note is that, perhaps contrary to popular belief, there is not one standard test being used around the world to test for coronavirus infection; each country is more or less using its own methodology.

Also, as I have discussed in a previous post, tests are not a magic 100% reliable indicator of whether someone has a disease or not.  Some of them are really quite unreliable indeed.  It’s actually quite a technical challenge to make accurate tests for common diseases, particular those caused by viruses.  If it were that easy, the shops would be full of such test kits.  Do you not think there would be a huge market for a simple, accurate home test for, say, the flu?  And the market would undoubtedly be much bigger for home tests for embarrassing viral diseases such as herpes and sexually transmitted infections.

And even if it were possible to manufacture a fairly accurate test for a disease, if the disease you are testing for is uncommon (as is currently the case with Covid-19 despite all the media hype to the contrary) then the rate of false positives this test will give you will be really high.  I will go into more detail on this later to illustrate that the world is largely suffering from a pandemic of false positives for Covid-19 rather than of the disease itself.

The general approach to testing for Covid-19 can be gauged from the US Centre for Disease Control’s (CDC’s) web pages on testing  and their information for laboratories doing Covid-19 testing.  So, let’s take a look at the two main types of testing that are being done for Covid-19 around the world right now: polymerase chain reaction (PCR) based tests and serology/antibody-based tests.

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PCR Based Tests

Many SARS-CoV-2 tests are based on what is called “Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction” or RT-PCR.  This is a type of more general process called the polymerase chain reaction (PCR).  Wikipedia gives good general explanations of the principles of PCR testing as a whole, as well as the type of RT-PCR tests used for Covid-19 testing.

Without going into too many technical details here, the general idea of a PCR test is to take a sample from a patient and multiply up all the target DNA in the sample (using the polymerase chain reaction, PCR).  The target DNA sequence used is designed to try and uniquely identify the target virus or bacteria so that if this sequence is found you can be reasonably sure you have found the target organism.

Serology/Antibody Based Tests

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Given all the problems with PCR based testing, some companies and countries are investigating the use of antibody-based tests instead.  The idea here is to try and detect antibodies – proteins produced by the body to fight infection – against the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the blood or other bodily fluids of a patient. The UK is working on getting antibody tests available in bulk for their population.  The CDC in the US is also looking at developing such tests.

I won’t discuss these kinds of tests in so much detail because most countries including our own Ghana and health care systems are still mainly reliant on RT-PCR based testing.  This is partly because accurate antibody tests are not widely available, being both difficult and time consuming to prepare in great numbers.  But suffice to say that antibody tests, even when they have been successfully manufactured, are also subject to many problems too.

BY RISK OFORIWAA DAUDA

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Features

… Steps to handle conflict at work-Part 1

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Conflict at work is more common than you might think. According to 2022 research by The Myers-Briggs Company, more than a third of the workforce reports dealing with conflict often, very often, or all the time in the workplace. The same report found that managers spend an average of four hours per week dealing with conflict, and nearly 25 per cent of people think their managers handle conflict poorly or very poorly.

Addressing a dispute might feel tense or awkward, but resolving the conflict is typically well worth it in the long run. Whether you’re trying to mediate conflict between colleagues or are directly involved, here are seven steps you can take to manage workplace conflict.

1. Don’t put it off

Facing conflict head-on is hard. However, waiting too long to address it can negatively impact your emotional well-being, focus, and the entire office environment. If you’re feeling angry, letting that emotion fester can also escalate it over time. This can make you less responsive to other points of view and make it harder to resolve the issue.

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The sooner you can address the conflict, the better it will be for you, the person you disagree with, and your entire team.

2. Learn all you can about the problem

It’s important to determine the type of conflict you’re dealing with. Begin by considering the cause of the conflict. For example, ask yourself whether someone said something that upset you or if you have emotions of anger and resentment that stemmed from something that happened.

Then try to identify if it’s a task, relationship, value, or team conflict. Once you know what type of conflict it is, you can work to resolve it with specific tactics for that situation.

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If you skip this step, you may waste time or escalate the situation further by trying to address issues irrelevant to the real conflict.

3. Actively listen

Listen attentively when people share their side of the story. Active listening is one of the most valuable professional skills you can possess. This type of listening involves not only hearing what the other person is saying but also listening to understand their point of view.

No matter your role in conflict, it’s easy to begin sharing your opinion with little regard for the other people involved. However, it’s important to learn about all sides of a disagreement to make well-informed decisions before drawing conclusions.

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To reach a resolution, you must step back and prioritize listening over talking. Ultimately, that will encourage the other person to do the same when it’s your turn to speak. –source: betterup.com

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Temple Of Praise (TOP) Church in Finland

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Elder Matthew Anini Twumasi

Today, I focus on the Temple Of Praise Ministries International (TOP Church) in Helsinki, as I continue my description of personalities or institutions and their accomplishments as members of the Ghanaian Diaspora in Finland.

The TOP Church in Finland has seen significant strides and accomplishments that must be made known to the public. 

Some history

The Church was established in Finland in September 2016. Since its inception, it has steadily grown both spiritually and numerically, by the grace of God, as disclosed to me by Mr Matthew Anini Twumasi, the Presiding Elder of TOP’s branch in Finland. The TOP Church has other branches across Africa, Europe, and America.

The Church in Finland was founded with a vision to create a welcoming and dynamic community where people could experience God’s love and grace (see, www.topchurchfinland.org). According to Presiding Elder Matthew, the TOP Church operates within a unique environment where Christianity coexists with what is seen as a largely secular society.

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Despite this, he submits, there are significant opportunities for outreach, unity, and demonstrating the love of Christ through service and community engagement.

Activities

Church services at the TOP Church are typically held on Sundays for the main worship. In addition, there are mid-week prayer sessions, Saturday prayer services, and a half-night service held on the last Friday of every month. “We also organise quarterly programs”, Elder Matthew added.

His impression of the Church so far has been positive. “It is a vibrant and welcoming community where members are committed to worship, fellowship, and supporting one another in faith”, he stated.

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In sum, Elder Matthew said the Church continues to grow by God’s grace. “We remain hopeful and committed to spreading the Gospel, strengthening the faith of our members, and making a positive impact in society”, he continued.

Achievements

The TOP Church has a number of achievements and achievements. Some of the strengths include strong community bonds, cultural diversity, and deep commitment to spiritual growth.

I also remember that during the COVID-19 period, I heard that the TOP Church was one such bodies that hugely supported its members and others to cope with the situation.

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According to Elder Matthew, the challenges facing the church include “adapting to cultural differences, engaging the younger generation, expanding outreach in a secular society, and securing a permanent place of worship”.

Role in the Ghanaian community in Finland

The TOP Church plays a prominent role as a religious group that serves Ghanaian migrants and others in the Finnish society.

Thus, the TOP Church is a religious body for Ghanaian migrants in Finland and other nationalities who want to worship with them for diversity and better intercultural and multicultural understanding.

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The Church also has mechanisms in place to support its members who are bereaved as a way to commiserate with them in times of death and funerals.

The Ghanaian community has played a vital role in the growth of the Church. Their strong sense of fellowship, dedication to worship, and active participation have helped build a solid foundation and attract others to the ministry, according to Elder Matthew.

Integration

By its activities, the TOP Church is helping to ensure integration of its members well into the Finish society.

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This is important since social interaction and citizens’ well-being are an important part of the integration process.

The role of migrant associations and groups such as TOP Church acting as bridge-builders for the integration and inclusion of migrants through participation in the decision making process and by acting as a representative voice is highly appreciated in Finland. Thank you!

GHANA MATTERS column appears fortnightly. Written in simple, layman’s terms, it concentrates on matters about Ghana and beyond. It focuses on everyday life issues relating to the social, cultural, economic, religious, political, health, sports, youth, gender, etc. It strives to remind us all that Ghana comes first. The column also takes a candid look at the meanings and repercussions of our actions, especially those things we take for granted or even ignore. There are key Ghanaian values we should uphold rather than disregard with impunity. We should not overlook the obvious. We need to search for the hidden or deeply embedded values and try to project them.

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With Dr Perpetual Crentsil

perpetual.crentsil@yahoo.com

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