Features
False Predictions Of Election Results By Pollsters And Emerging Consequences
Political pollsters conduct opinion polls for political parties, politicians, advocacy groups, elected and government officials, think tanks and corporations among other groupings. They use their knowledge of statistical analysis, social behaviour and survey methods to question representative samplings of either the general population, or certain demographic groups regarding political issues.
Their job duties among other things, are to conduct research on specific issue or set of issues by reviewing reference material and conferring with clients, create or supervise the creation of carefully worded questions in order to generate clear response and devise strategies regarding how and when the survey will be conducted.
DUTIES OF POLLSTERS
They also perform interviews in person, over the phone, by email or online, analyze survey data, while being sure to adhere to recognised standards regarding the interpretation of complied data, communicate survey results to clients and ensure prompt and accurate assessment of findings.
Indeed, this is a specialised field with a clearly defined aims and objectives that will produce good, perfect and accurate results for clients so that they will depend or rely upon them to plan their strategies to promote their business objectives and other tangible assessment. The practitioners in this noble profession who may be political science degree holders or students pursuing political science in various tertiary institutions and universities as well as well- established institutions, have an in-depth knowledge about election and how it is conducted and above all a deep understanding about the whole process of election, data collection and gathering, interviews among others and are well trained to accomplish the noble task.
POLLSTER IS SPECIALISED JOB
It is important to state that not every person can just stand up and assume the role or title of pollster for the sake of it. You may have a little background on mathematics and data gathering and collection, but that will not guarantee you to be a pollster or to parade yourself as one since it is a specialised area. I am not a pollster and I cannot be one because I don’t have the qualities and pedigree to be one.
I am a journalist, but a very good one though, with the simple task of educating, informing and entertaining people about issues and events happening around them so that they will be well informed in order not to be left behind, fall astray or kept in the dark as far as news is concerned.
Besides, I continue to use my God-given talent to write about all manner of interesting articles for readers to assimilate and enjoy. I criticise when it is due and offer constructive suggestions when and where necessary. This is the type of profession and the job I have been trained to do and I enjoy it each and every day.
SELF-STYLED POLLSTERS
I have decided to go or follow this tangent because of the way some self-styled pollsters are churning out inaccurate results to Ghanaians of late, thus creating tension and anxiety in the political space. I do not intend to mention names of people or individuals involved in this falsehood but it is happening and the recent by-election in Kumawu in the Ashanti Region and Assin North in the Central Region, attested clearly to this fact.
I am not downplaying or degrading every pollster in this country but only cautioning that those who don’t have the pedigree to forecast and predict accurately need to advise themselves because their actions can cause controversy and chaos among the people. These ‘try and error’ predictions must give way to proper and constructive analysis and data collections that are result-oriented.
KUMAWU BY- ELECTION
In the Kumawu by-election that was held on May 23, 2022, it was clear and evident that the New Patriotic Party (NPP) was going to win the election hands down because the area is a stronghold of the party. You don’t need any pollster to predict the outcome of that election. It was a forgone conclusion for the NPP candidate, Ernest Yaw Annim who won by 70 per cent representing 15,264 votes with the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, Kwasi Amankwaa, obtaining 3,723 votes representing 17.29 per cent of the valid votes cast. The only duty of a pollster in the Kumawu by election is to predict whether there were appreciation or depreciation of votes for both candidates.
ASSIN NORTH BY-ELECTION
The Assin North by-election was a different ‘ball game’ altogether. The place had been a swing constituency with both the NDC and the NPP winning at a point in time during the general elections and that made that election very unique in terms of who would emerge the winner. More so, the candidates involved, especially the NDC candidate, James Gyakye Quayson, who was booted out of parliament by a Supreme Court ruling on his dual citizenship, gave cause for those pollsters to do their own predictions. The NDC defied all odds and fielded the embattled Quayson while the NPP as a strategy brought Charles Opoku from the same area where the NDC candidate hails from to provide a stiff opposition.
NPP IN ASSIN NORTH
Prior to that election, the NPP marshalled all resources including excavators and earth moving equipment to the constituency to re-shape some of their bad roads in the midst of rains. An astrotech football pitch had to be commissioned in the rain by the Vice President Alhaji Mahamudu Bawumia, all in an attempt to garner and gather more votes for the NPP candidates. The powerful team led by President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo himself, travelled to the Assin North for a full-scale campaign for their candidate.
NDC AT ASSIN NORTH
The NDC with Its leader, John Dramani Mahama, MPs and party functionaries also went on campaign trail in the Assin North Constituency. Accra was virtually deserted on the election day. Days before the election in the Assin North, pollsters, some of whom were not known, started putting and throwing figures across based on survey they claimed they have conducted in the area, having spoken to a few people in the constituency. Most of these pollsters predicted a done deal for the NPP candidate because of the last-minute campaign by the President which gave them high hopes. However, their predictions did not materialise as Quayson managed to win convincingly with 17,245 votes representing 57.56 percent of the valid votes cast with the NPP Charles Opoku placing second with 12,630 votes representing 42.15 percent.
TRY AND ERROR POLLSTERS
All those scenarios pointed to the fact that the so-called pollsters were only engaged in a ‘try and error’ or speculation business, using the high -profile personalities involved in the campaign exercise as their yardstick, especially in the case of the Assin North by-election. In fact, there had been several occasions in the past when some of these most established institutions have had accurate results in their predictions, but this time round, they got everything wrong.
POLLSTERS AND 2024 ELECTIONS
Very soon, we will be heading towards the presidential and parliamentary elections and these organisations and individual pollsters will start doing their own thing to predict the outcome of the elections. Nobody is baring them from carrying out their individual mandate and there is no law in this country that bars any person or group of persons from carrying out election surveys and predicting the outcomes. However, in doing this self-assigned job, one need to be careful and circumspect about these outcomes in order not to deceive and cause disaffection among the populace. It is interesting to note that even so-called pastors, evangelists, prophets of doom and ‘what not’, have joined the fray of pollsters, predicting and churning out election results which eventually turned out to be false.
NPP FLAGBEARERSHIP RACE
Shortly, the NPP will be electing its flag-bearer in a hectic contest involving 10 contestants namely, Alhaji Mahamudu Bawumia, the current Vice President of Ghana, Mr. Allan Kwadwo Kyerematen, Boakye Agyarko, Kwabena Agyei Agyepong, Francis Addai-Nimoh, Dr Kofi Konadu Apraku, Dr. Owusu Afriyie Akoto, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, Joe Ghartey and Kwadwo Poku. All these contestants are reputable and qualified personalities who have what it takes to be the presidential nominee for the NPP. However, it is only one who will get the nod to lead the party in the 2024 presidential election.
As usual, the so-called pollsters, religious groupings and forecasters will be at their wit end doing their own thing and predicting the outcome of the primaries in what they termed data collection from delegates who will be casting their ballots to pick one among the lot. When they fail in their attempt with their “try and error” business, they will then turn to the supporters of the NPP and apologise for their ineffectiveness. We need to thread cautiously in this regard.
Contact email/WhatsApp of author: ataani2000@yahoo.com 0277753946/028933366
By Charles Neequaye
When Abigail Fremah steps up to the Armwrestling table, the noise fades, the tension settles, and order takes over.
Despite a calm, but firm and meticulous disposition, she has become one of the quiet forces shaping Ghana’s growing reputation in the sport, not as an athlete, but a referee trusted on the continental stage.
Abigail’s journey into Armwrestling did not begin at the table. Like many Ghanaian sports enthusiasts, she grew up playing several disciplines. Football was her first love, but she also featured in volleyball and basketball during her school years. Sports, she says, was simply a way of life not just for her.
“It runs through the family. All my siblings are into sports,” she stated.
“I was involved in almost every sport in school, football, volleyball, netball, hockey; I did everything,” she recalls.
Her academic background in Health, Physical Education and Recreation laid a solid foundation for her sporting career. While on scholarship at the university (University of Cape Coast), she often used her modest budget to support young athletes, sometimes sharing skills and even T-shirts at programmes she attended. Giving back, she explains, has always been part of her motivation.
However, as she matured as an athlete, Abigail made a critical self-assessment.
“Armwrestling involves a lot of strength,” she admits. “Looking at my body type, I realised I couldn’t fit properly as a competitive athlete.”
That moment of honesty pushed her to a different trajectory but equally important path in sports; which is officiating.
During her National Service, she was encouraged by Mr Charles Osei Asibey, the President of the Ghana Armwrestling Federation (GAF), to consider officiating. He introduced her to a technical official, Mr Hussein Akuerteh Addy, who formally took her through the basics of Armwrestling officiating in 2021.
“I started as a case official,” she says. “We moved from region to region every week, officiating competitions. That’s where it all began.”
By 2022, Abigail was actively involved in national assignments, though she missed the African Championship that year. Her breakthrough came in 2023, when Ghana hosted the African Armwrestling Championship.
It was her first experience officiating at a major international competition and it changed everything.
“That was my first national and international exposure at the same time,” she says. “It really opened my eyes.”
Today, Abigail is a World Junior Armwrestling Referee, a status earned through performance, consistency and discipline. She explains that progression in officiating was not automatic.
“It’s all about performance, your appearance at African Championships, your conduct, how you handle pressure; that’s what takes you to the world level,” she stressed.
As a referee, Abigail’s priority is safety and fairness. Armwrestling, she notes, comes with risks, particularly injuries to the wrists, elbows, shoulders and arms.
“If athletes don’t follow the rules or refuse to listen to officials, injuries can happen,” she explains, adding that focus was everything.
Before every match, she ensures that all equipment which includes elbow pads, hand pegs and table alignment were properly set. Athletes are not allowed to cover their elbows, must grip correctly, and must follow the referee’s commands precisely.
“We make sure everything is fixed before the grip,” she says. “Once we say ‘Ready… Go’, there should be no confusion.”
She is also firm on discipline. Warnings are issued for infractions, and repeated misconduct attracts penalties.
“The referee must be respected, if you don’t listen, the rules will deal with you,” she says.
Abigail credits her confidence partly to her sporting family background. Her mother was a volleyball player, while other family members also participated in sports. Though they were initially concerned about her safety, her rise to the top reassured them.
“They were afraid at first,” she admits. “But they were also very proud, especially because some of them never got the opportunity to reach this level.”
Looking ahead, Abigail is optimistic about the future of Armwrestling in Ghana. In less than a decade, the country has produced African and world-level medalists, a sign, she believes, of great things to come for Ghana.
“Whenever we go out, we come back with medals such as gold and silver,” she says, and to her that was a sign of growth.
In the next five to ten years, Abigail sees herself rising to become a World Master Referee, the highest officiating level in the sport. Until then, her routine remains intense, training four times a week, working closely with athletes, standing on her feet for hours, and constantly refining her understanding of the rules.
“I love this sport,” she says simply. “That love is what keeps me going.”
Abigail encouraged women to be bold and intentional about their place in sports saying “don’t limit yourself because of fear or stereotypes.”
She also urged women to invest in learning, discipline and consistency, stressing that respect was earned through performance.
For Abigail, as Ghana’s armwrestlers continue to make their mark, she will remain where she is most effective at the table, ensuring the game is played right.
By Esinam Jemima Kuatsinu
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As he had promised Aperkeh, the elderly man and his wife and three daughters stopped by Aperkeh’s parents’ house. Mr Amando and his family were preparing to settle in for the night.
“Brother Ben and family”, Mr Joshua Amando said warmly, “although I know you are here on a matter that can hardly be described as joyous, it is still good to see you. You are welcome. Please sit down while I bring you water”.
“Yes, we will take water, even though we are hardly thirsty, because this is our home”.
“Okay, Ben”, he started after they had drank, “Let me go straight to the point. My daughter Priscilla has told me about the goings on between her brother Aperkeh and our daughter Stella.
Before informing me, Priscilla had expressed concern to Aperkeh about some habits he is adopting, especially the late nights and the drinking. She tells me that one Saturday morning, she was there when Stella complained about his drinking and some girls who had come to the house to look for him, and he assaulted her.
I called him and complained, but all he could say was that I don’t know what caused him to react that way, so I could not judge him. Now he does not answer my calls.
I have sent Priscilla to his house to call him, but he has refused to come. Unfortunately, Ben, my son is a much different person than the young boy who completed university and started work at the bank. I am really embarrassed about his treatment of Stella”.
“Joshua, let me assure you that even though what is happening is very unfortunate, it will not affect our relationship.
We have been friends since childhood, and I thought that with their parents’ blessing, the relationship between Aperkeh and Stella would grow to become a blessing to all of us. But there appears to be a real challenge now.
Stella thinks that Aperkeh wants her out of his house, and indeed Aperkeh himself told me that, about an hour ago.
So I’m taking my daughter home. I suggest that you do what you can to straighten him out, but if it does not work out, let’s accept the situation and continue to be one family.
I am sure that being the well behaved girl that she is, Stella will meet a young man who will cherish her. Fortunately, this problem is happening early in the day, so they can sort things out if possible, or move on with their lives if they are unable to stay together”.
“I’m really grateful for that, Ben. I will do my best in the next few days to reason with him, because apart from the relationship with Stella, Aperkeh is risking his job and career with this lifestyle.
A good job and salary offers an opportunity to gather momentum in life, not to destroy yourself”.
“Okay Brother Joshua. We will say goodnight. I hope to hear positive news from you”.
As he descended in the lift from the fourth to the ground floor, Aperkeh wondered who would be waiting at the reception to see him at nine on Monday morning. He had spent good time with both of his new girls during the weekend, so it had to be someone else. He got out of the lift and pulled a face when he saw Priscilla.
“Priscilla”, he said as he sat down by her, “what do you want here? You know Monday morning is a busy time at the bank. I am a very busy person, so say what you want, I have work to do”.
“You are very funny, Aperkeh. You are telling me, your sister, that you have work to do, so I should hurry up? Okay, Dad says I should advise you to come home tonight, because he wants to discuss the issue of Stella with you. He sent me to you twice, and you did not come.
He has tried to call you quite a number of times, but you have refused to answer his calls. He says that if you do not come tonight, you will be very surprised at what he will do. He says you will not like it at all, so better come.
“What is all this? Why won’t you people leave me alone? Stella is very disrespectful. I told her that if she wanted to continue to live in my house, she must obey me. It is that simple.
She chose to continue ordering me about, controlling me in my own house, so I told her that if she could not live under my conditions she should leave. And she left. In fact, her own father came and took her away. So what again?’’
“How did she disobey or control you? Was she complaining about your continuous drinking and late nights? And did you slap her on several occasions because of that? Did you tell her that if she could not live under your conditions she should leave? You actually said that to her father? You have forgotten that before she came to live with you, our two parents met and agreed, and gave it their blessing?’
“Why don’t you leave, Priscilla? I don’t have to listen to all that”. “Okay, I will go. Your father who gave birth to you and educated you to university level sends me to you, and you ask me to leave? I wish you would defy him, and refuse to come home as he’s telling you, because he is planning to give you the discipline you badly need. Let me tell you. Stella is such a beautiful and decent girl, and I assure you that someone will grab her before you say Jack. You are only 30 years old, and you have already become a drunkard”.
As he walked towards the lift, Aperkeh decided on what to do. He would go home, and calmly listen to what his father had to say. The old man was very unpredictable, and he wouldn’t dare ignore him. So he would take all the insults and threats, but as for Stella she was history. According to Priscilla, Stella was beautiful and all that, but she had not seen the two curvaceous princesses who were all over him, ready to do anything he asked. And these were not barely literate waakye girls, but university graduates from wealthy homes, really classy girls. With stuff like that, who needs a waakye girl? He smiled as he took his seat.
A few minutes to five, Aperkeh was packing up to leave for home to meet his dad when his phone rang. It was Priscilla.
“Aperkeh, Dad says you don’t need to bother to come. Stella’s dad says she came to him early this morning to plead that she would rather stay at home than return to your house. She thinks you are already decided to be rid of her, and she does not want to risk being assaulted again. So it’s done. You can go ahead and enjoy the nice life you have started”.
Before he could tell her to go to hell, Priscilla hanged up the line. He was partially stung that his dad had virtually cut him off. The last thing anyone would want was to fall out of relationship with his own family, which had always supported him.
But the truth was he was no longer interested in Stella. What was wrong with going by one’s feelings? He could only hope that one day, his parents and sister would try to reason with him.
By Ekow de Heer
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