Features
False Predictions Of Election Results By Pollsters And Emerging Consequences
Political pollsters conduct opinion polls for political parties, politicians, advocacy groups, elected and government officials, think tanks and corporations among other groupings. They use their knowledge of statistical analysis, social behaviour and survey methods to question representative samplings of either the general population, or certain demographic groups regarding political issues.
Their job duties among other things, are to conduct research on specific issue or set of issues by reviewing reference material and conferring with clients, create or supervise the creation of carefully worded questions in order to generate clear response and devise strategies regarding how and when the survey will be conducted.
DUTIES OF POLLSTERS
They also perform interviews in person, over the phone, by email or online, analyze survey data, while being sure to adhere to recognised standards regarding the interpretation of complied data, communicate survey results to clients and ensure prompt and accurate assessment of findings.
Indeed, this is a specialised field with a clearly defined aims and objectives that will produce good, perfect and accurate results for clients so that they will depend or rely upon them to plan their strategies to promote their business objectives and other tangible assessment. The practitioners in this noble profession who may be political science degree holders or students pursuing political science in various tertiary institutions and universities as well as well- established institutions, have an in-depth knowledge about election and how it is conducted and above all a deep understanding about the whole process of election, data collection and gathering, interviews among others and are well trained to accomplish the noble task.
POLLSTER IS SPECIALISED JOB
It is important to state that not every person can just stand up and assume the role or title of pollster for the sake of it. You may have a little background on mathematics and data gathering and collection, but that will not guarantee you to be a pollster or to parade yourself as one since it is a specialised area. I am not a pollster and I cannot be one because I don’t have the qualities and pedigree to be one.
I am a journalist, but a very good one though, with the simple task of educating, informing and entertaining people about issues and events happening around them so that they will be well informed in order not to be left behind, fall astray or kept in the dark as far as news is concerned.
Besides, I continue to use my God-given talent to write about all manner of interesting articles for readers to assimilate and enjoy. I criticise when it is due and offer constructive suggestions when and where necessary. This is the type of profession and the job I have been trained to do and I enjoy it each and every day.
SELF-STYLED POLLSTERS
I have decided to go or follow this tangent because of the way some self-styled pollsters are churning out inaccurate results to Ghanaians of late, thus creating tension and anxiety in the political space. I do not intend to mention names of people or individuals involved in this falsehood but it is happening and the recent by-election in Kumawu in the Ashanti Region and Assin North in the Central Region, attested clearly to this fact.
I am not downplaying or degrading every pollster in this country but only cautioning that those who don’t have the pedigree to forecast and predict accurately need to advise themselves because their actions can cause controversy and chaos among the people. These ‘try and error’ predictions must give way to proper and constructive analysis and data collections that are result-oriented.
KUMAWU BY- ELECTION
In the Kumawu by-election that was held on May 23, 2022, it was clear and evident that the New Patriotic Party (NPP) was going to win the election hands down because the area is a stronghold of the party. You don’t need any pollster to predict the outcome of that election. It was a forgone conclusion for the NPP candidate, Ernest Yaw Annim who won by 70 per cent representing 15,264 votes with the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, Kwasi Amankwaa, obtaining 3,723 votes representing 17.29 per cent of the valid votes cast. The only duty of a pollster in the Kumawu by election is to predict whether there were appreciation or depreciation of votes for both candidates.
ASSIN NORTH BY-ELECTION
The Assin North by-election was a different ‘ball game’ altogether. The place had been a swing constituency with both the NDC and the NPP winning at a point in time during the general elections and that made that election very unique in terms of who would emerge the winner. More so, the candidates involved, especially the NDC candidate, James Gyakye Quayson, who was booted out of parliament by a Supreme Court ruling on his dual citizenship, gave cause for those pollsters to do their own predictions. The NDC defied all odds and fielded the embattled Quayson while the NPP as a strategy brought Charles Opoku from the same area where the NDC candidate hails from to provide a stiff opposition.
NPP IN ASSIN NORTH
Prior to that election, the NPP marshalled all resources including excavators and earth moving equipment to the constituency to re-shape some of their bad roads in the midst of rains. An astrotech football pitch had to be commissioned in the rain by the Vice President Alhaji Mahamudu Bawumia, all in an attempt to garner and gather more votes for the NPP candidates. The powerful team led by President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo himself, travelled to the Assin North for a full-scale campaign for their candidate.
NDC AT ASSIN NORTH
The NDC with Its leader, John Dramani Mahama, MPs and party functionaries also went on campaign trail in the Assin North Constituency. Accra was virtually deserted on the election day. Days before the election in the Assin North, pollsters, some of whom were not known, started putting and throwing figures across based on survey they claimed they have conducted in the area, having spoken to a few people in the constituency. Most of these pollsters predicted a done deal for the NPP candidate because of the last-minute campaign by the President which gave them high hopes. However, their predictions did not materialise as Quayson managed to win convincingly with 17,245 votes representing 57.56 percent of the valid votes cast with the NPP Charles Opoku placing second with 12,630 votes representing 42.15 percent.
TRY AND ERROR POLLSTERS
All those scenarios pointed to the fact that the so-called pollsters were only engaged in a ‘try and error’ or speculation business, using the high -profile personalities involved in the campaign exercise as their yardstick, especially in the case of the Assin North by-election. In fact, there had been several occasions in the past when some of these most established institutions have had accurate results in their predictions, but this time round, they got everything wrong.
POLLSTERS AND 2024 ELECTIONS
Very soon, we will be heading towards the presidential and parliamentary elections and these organisations and individual pollsters will start doing their own thing to predict the outcome of the elections. Nobody is baring them from carrying out their individual mandate and there is no law in this country that bars any person or group of persons from carrying out election surveys and predicting the outcomes. However, in doing this self-assigned job, one need to be careful and circumspect about these outcomes in order not to deceive and cause disaffection among the populace. It is interesting to note that even so-called pastors, evangelists, prophets of doom and ‘what not’, have joined the fray of pollsters, predicting and churning out election results which eventually turned out to be false.
NPP FLAGBEARERSHIP RACE
Shortly, the NPP will be electing its flag-bearer in a hectic contest involving 10 contestants namely, Alhaji Mahamudu Bawumia, the current Vice President of Ghana, Mr. Allan Kwadwo Kyerematen, Boakye Agyarko, Kwabena Agyei Agyepong, Francis Addai-Nimoh, Dr Kofi Konadu Apraku, Dr. Owusu Afriyie Akoto, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, Joe Ghartey and Kwadwo Poku. All these contestants are reputable and qualified personalities who have what it takes to be the presidential nominee for the NPP. However, it is only one who will get the nod to lead the party in the 2024 presidential election.
As usual, the so-called pollsters, religious groupings and forecasters will be at their wit end doing their own thing and predicting the outcome of the primaries in what they termed data collection from delegates who will be casting their ballots to pick one among the lot. When they fail in their attempt with their “try and error” business, they will then turn to the supporters of the NPP and apologise for their ineffectiveness. We need to thread cautiously in this regard.
Contact email/WhatsApp of author: ataani2000@yahoo.com 0277753946/028933366
By Charles Neequaye
THE state of feeling rejected, could be a terrifying experience especially for those who have become used to fame. If not properly addressed, it could lead to depression and the consequences, could be disastrous.
When you are on top of your game in whatever profession you find yourself such that you become famous, a lot of people try to associate with you. The phone never ceases to ring and one is tempted to feel loved and very important.
When a disaster strikes and the fame or the money which was the source of the attraction fades away, the circle of friends and fans begin to shrink and the phone will start to stop ringing until the call stops voting completely.
You will be shocked at how people you considered friends, will no longer be calling you or pay casual visits as they used to. You will begin to notice that messages you leave after calling them and not getting a response are not replied to and that is when you begin to know who your true friends are.
One of the most popular movie stars was an actress called Sharon Stone. In an interview with one of the media houses that was published, she spoke about how people who should have come around to encourage her in her moment of depression, shunned her. The calls stopped coming.
This is what the Bible admonishes that the arm of flesh will fail you and therefore we should put our trust in God. It could be a very frightening experience and can easily lead to depression.
Human nature being what it is, people will want to get close if things are okay. Everybody wants to associate themselves with interesting things, famous people, rich people etc for mainly selfish reasons.
We need to develop the habit of putting our trust in God and relying less on human beings. The lesson we have to take along in life is that, no one marries his or her enemy so how come people who took vows that they will love each other become so hostile to each other that they want to go their separate ways in life? Such is the reality of life.
It is therefore prudent for people to recognise that, life is full of uncertainties and so there is the need to prepare your mind for uncertainties so that when they occur, they do not disorganise your mental sanity.
A lot of people have experienced situations where people who they could have sworn will never betray their trust have disappointed them when they were through challenging moments.
If there is one thing famous people should desire, it should be the ability to identify who are true friends are. Countless stories abound regarding incidence of celebrities who have lost their shine and their wives divorcing them soon after.
It is sometimes useful as a famous or rich person to sign a prenuptial agreement before marriage to safeguard or protect yourself from any future unpleasant surprises.
People can be very pretentious these days, it goes both ways. There is this real life story where a man married a divorced wealthy woman and convinced her to sell her house so they could build a new one together, with the excuse that people are gossiping that he is being housed by a woman.
The woman agreed and they put up a new building. After a few years the man asked for a divorce, only for the woman to realise that the land on which the building was situated, was bought in the man’s name.
This can drive a person insane, if you are not mentally tough and this happens to you. When people hear that you are homeless, a lot of your so-called friends will stop calling, so that you do not become a burden on them.
By Laud Kissi-Mensah
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‘But, er …. I don’t even know your name’.
‘Paul. Paul Allotey. I’m Sarah, by the way. Paul, why don’t you leave me here, since this is the last important thing I’m doing today’.
‘Okay. Now Sarah. I was just thinking. You will be here at the cafe for about an hour. By then it will be about twelve thirty. Then, you would be thinking of buying yourself some lunch, to eat here or to take home. So if you would please allow me, I will take you to one of the nicest eating places in town, and after you have sorted that one out, then I can drop you home. Just that one errand, then I won’t bother you again’.
‘You are not bothering me at all. You are being very kind to me. And I just realised you are a mind reader too. The last item on my agenda was lunch’.
‘I’m so glad I appeared at your doorstep, just in time’.
‘Okay. Now Paul, since you say the cafe is a comfortable place, let’s go in together, and you can do your work while I get my application done’.
‘Okay, Sarah. Thanks. Let’s go’.
We got back in the car at eleven forty-five.
‘So where are we going, Paul?’
‘To Royalty restaurant. It’s a twenty minute drive away’.
‘So, do you enjoy your job?’
‘Most certainly. I won’t change it, not even to be President. And am I right to say that you are preparing to enter the university?’
‘That’s my plan. I hope it works’.
‘It will, if you are determined, and disciplined. You look very much like a disciplined person’.
‘Thank you very much’.
We arrived at Royalty in twenty-five minutes, ‘You are joining me for lunch, Paul’.
‘Thanks for the honour, Sarah. But the bill is on me’.
‘Aren’t you taking on too much for one day?’
‘I never do anything that is bigger than me, Sarah’.
Over the next hour and a half, we discussed fashion, local and international politics, and sports, as we ate and relaxed. Finally, he drove me to the shop.
‘I will never forget you, Paul’.
‘I’m glad to have been helpful. But if you don’t mind, I’ll say it again, your husband is extremely lucky. You are really beautiful’.
‘Thanks again. But do you mind if I call you sometime in the future?’
‘Certainly not. Let me write it here. I will not ask for your number, for obvious reasons. But I will be looking forward to hearing from you. And hopefully, I will see you next month, when I call to drop your bill’.
‘Okay Paul. See you then’. What a lovely day, I said to myself as I opened the front door. I closed the shop and got home by seven. I went straight to the bedroom, stood in the mirror and took a good look at myself. ‘You are a very beautiful woman, Sarah. Never forget that’. I will not forget that, again.
Over the next several weeks, Martin and I had very little to do with each other. In the morning he ate his breakfast and after a shabby ‘I’m going’, he left. He came home around eight at the earliest, ate his dinner and, already soaked in beer, went off to sleep.
He spent the greater part of the weekends at the club house with his friends, playing tennis and partying. My mind was focused on furthering my education, so I didn’t complain to him, and didn’t bother to inform my parents about what was happening. I had decided that I would only take action if he lifted his hand against me again. I spent my free time reading all manner of interesting stuff on the internet, and chatting with my sister on WhatsApp.
One evening, he came home at about eight, rushed to the bedroom and rushed out. An envelope, obviously containing money, dropped out of his pocket, and I picked it up and followed him. I was going to call him and give it to him, but I noticed that there was a young woman in the car, so I went back in, counted it and put it in a drawer in the hall. He came back after some ten minutes.
‘Excuse me, I dropped an envelope containing money. You must have seen it’.
‘Yes, I saw it. Actually, I followed you, and was about to call you and hand it over to you when I realised that there was a woman in the car, so I came back in. I counted it. One thousand cedis.
‘Well let me have it. I have to be going’.
‘I will let you have it if you will tell me who the woman in the car is, and why you are going to give her that amount of money’.
‘Listen, if you waste my time, I will teach you a lesson you will never forget. Give me the money now!’
‘Here’s what we will do, Martin. I know you will give money to her anyway, so I will give it to you, if you will withdraw the threat you just issued. But I want you to know that I will be taking some steps from tomorrow. Things are getting out of hand’.
‘Okay, I’m sorry I threatened you. Can you please give me the money’. I handed it over to him, and he ran out’.
The following morning, I waited for him to finish having breakfast, and told him I wanted to have a word with him urgently.
‘You better be quick. You know I’m going to work’.
‘Well, I want to inform you that I will inform my parents, and your parents, about the situation in this house. As I said yesterday, things are getting out of hand. You spend most of your time drinking. You get drunk every evening, and through the weekend. And you are also spending your time and money on a prostitute’.
‘How dare you? One more stupid word from you …’
‘Am I lying, Martin? You have just started life, yet you are behaving like a rich, elderly man who has already seen his children through university, and can afford a life of fun. As I said, I’m going to inform our parents. Maybe your parents can straighten you out before it is too late’.
‘Look, we can talk this evening. It’s nothing like what you are saying’. He walked away, shocked.
That evening, I was expecting to have a meaningful discussion with him, but his mother called early in the evening to offer me some ‘advice’. Her son had called to say that certain developments at home were disturbing him so much that they were beginning to affect his work.
And, ‘as a loving mother to her daughter’, she was advising me to submit to my husband, and support him in prayer, and not ‘drive him from home’. Men would always be men, and she was telling me ‘from experience’ that no matter how much time Martin stayed away from home, he would always come home to me.
She had been a young wife before, so she understood the challenges I was facing. So I could be assured that if I followed her advice, all would be well. And, of course, she didn’t allow me to tell my side of the story.
Martin came home very late, and very drunk. And from the next morning, he carried on as before. With some hesitation, I called my dad and told him all that had gone on.
‘Well, my daughter. I’m not going to say “I told you so”. I was only trying to protect you. So here’s what we’ll do. Continue doing the best you can, and try not to give him any excuse to harm you, but if things continue to deteriorate, I will take you back.
A couple of days later, my cousin Dinah arrived in Accra from Brussels, having completed her medical course. With Martin’s agreement, I went to Koforidua and spent a couple of days. I spent most of the time chatting about her experiences in the US, but we also discussed my relationship with Martin, and she endorsed Dad’s decision to take action if Martin’s behaviour did not change after two weeks Elaine informed Mom and Dad. We endorsed Dad’s decision to take action if there was no change in two weeks.
Dinah returned with me to Takoradi. Her plan was to spend a couple of weeks, and return to Accra to be posted. I called Paul Allotey, and asked if he would meet her for lunch and, if possible, show her some interesting spots. Delighted, he suggested that we meet at Royalty the next day.
I told Martin about it, to remove any possibility of future disagreement over ‘going out with men’.
‘It’s fine with me’, he said, ‘if, of all the people who could show your sister round this town, you chose a borla man. Doesn’t that indicate the kind of person you are?’
‘ First of all, Martin’, I’ve spoken to him a few times, and he comes across as a decent guy, so I think it is rather unfortunate that you are writing him off when you don’t know him’.
By Ekow de Heer
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