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Enimil Ashon:Delegates vs grassroots: NPP’s puzzle?
Like all human endeavours, political polls have often gone wrong, especially if decisions about sampling, calculation of the chi-square, margin of error etc. were not well handled.
Because of this, I do not swear by or put store-by pollsters’ results all of the time. The fact is, they could even be manipulated, with figures cooked to deceive, depending on the interest or biases of the pollster.
In my life, I have seen poll figures computed even before sampling was determined.
In the weeks leading up to the November 2016 election in the United States, polls across the country predicted an easy sweep for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Everyone knows what happened. Donald Trump won.
In that election, Sam Wang, a neuroscience Professor at Princeton University and co-founder of Princeton Election Consortium, which analyses election polling, called the race for Clinton. He was so confident that he made a bet to eat an insect if Trump won more than 240 electoral votes. Hilary lost and Wang did what he promised. Live on CNN, he swallowed a cricket.
Occasionally, even here in Ghana, we have seen polls and pollsters whose predictions have been close to perfect. Ben Ephson’s claim to fame is through polling, not journalism.
There have been many instances when, with or without polls, the results are predictable. The latest is this year’s NDC presidential primaries: even a JHS student knew Mahama was way ahead.
This weekend’s super delegates conference of the NPP to determine which five offer themselves at the November 4 primaries seems to be a different kettle of fish. There has been consistency in the predictions since the early part of the year, with the latest putting Bawumia ahead by more than 70%.
Are they to be believed? A year ago, when some UK-based pollsters came out with Bawumia ahead, the Alan Campaign rubbished it, claiming that the polling company did not even exist.
Will Ghana wake up on Sunday morning to a shock? Personally, I wish to God that three out of Kennedy Agyapong, Kwabena Agyepong, Joe Ghartey, and Dr Afriyie Akoto will be among the top five. They have really been in the trenches and looked the delegates eyeball to eyeball, campaigning on their vision.
Win or lose, Kwabena Agyepong has won respect as a fiery speaker. Any other candidate who wins ultimately in November should recruit his talent and capabilities as the NPP Spokesperson.
Will Alan be fourth time lucky? Against Akufo-Addo’s 1,096 votes (47.97%) in the 2007 primaries, Alan obtained 32.32% with 738 votes. The 2010 election was one in which Alan should not have run. To a man (and woman) the NPP was unanimous behind Akufo Addo. It was actually providential that Alan managed 19.91% of the 2,293 votes.
Is it Kyeremateng’s turn this year? Will the voters sympathize with him?
In this 2023 campaigning, credit must be given where it is due. It goes to the Bawumia Campaign. (Note: I am not saying he will win). The team has been strategic. As one of them said on radio some time in June, they have been campaigning since 2021.
Evidence of their work is seen in three impressive achievements. One is their penetration into Ashanti which, until early this year, was widely thought to be 90% Alan. Two, they have managed to grab attention of the predominantly Christian voter population. Count the number of times Bawumia has been in and out of Christian churches, starting from Father Campbell’s church.
Of course, some fundamentalist Christians were on social media saying they do not see how Christianity can be said to worship the same God as any other religion that does not believe that God is in three persons: Father, Son and Holy Spirit, or believe that Jesus Christ rose from the dead.
But the election is marketing, and in marketing, there is nothing wrong with claiming to be more Catholic than the Pope. Didn’t the sages say that all is fair in love and war?
A third and most significant Bawumia Campaign achievement, at least for the primaries, has been their ability to win the majority of MPs and Ministers to their side. The Bawumia strategists have also succeeded in shooting down (at least, that is what it seems) the “Alan, edru wo so slogan.
The question, however, is: are all these polls and external showings, so far, a true reflection of what is actually happening among the delegates? Twice, last year and this year, the polls have been unanimous that while “official delegates” will decide for Bawumia, the rank and file of NPP, from Assini through Walawale to Zuarungu, favour Alan as flagbearer.
This is the NPP conundrum. It is what driving the suspicion that November may be significantly different from August.
Will tomorrow ever come?
Source:Enimil Ashon
The spokesperson for Dr. Bawumia, Dennis Miracles Aboagye, has criticised the implementation of the NDC government’s No Fee Stress policy, arguing that the programme has failed to deliver on its core promise.
According to him on Starr fm, the policy, which was introduced to ensure stress free payment of fees for level 100 tertiary students, has rather turned into what he described as post stress support.
He explained that students are required to pay their fees first before applying for reimbursement, a situation he believes defeats the purpose of the policy.
He questioned claims by government officials that the policy has been successful and that citizens are happy.
In his view, such claims do not reflect the lived realities of many Ghanaians. He stressed that while some people may appear satisfied, many others continue to struggle.
Dennis Miracles Aboagye pointed to the situation of trained teachers and nurses who have been picketing for nearly six months, demanding employment.
He noted that government responses suggesting it cannot accommodate all of them contradict claims of economic stability.
He further argued that economic indicators such as a stable currency mean little to people who are unable to secure jobs or access promised support.
He observed that telling an unemployed teacher or a struggling student that the cedi has strengthened does not address their immediate challenges.
On the issue of tertiary education, he maintained that no level 100 student benefited from stress free fees in 2025, despite the policy being announced.
He added that in 2026, students have already reported to school without receiving the promised support.
He insisted that asking students to pay fees first and seek reimbursement later amounts to support after hardship, not stress free education.
According to him, this approach goes against what was promised during the policy announcement.
Dennis Miracles Aboagye questioned why a government that presents the economy as strong is unable to fulfil what he described as simple and clear promises.
He added that there is a fundamental problem with the way the economy is being managed and indicated that he is prepared to explain his position further.
By: Jacob Aggrey
Dancehall musician Shatta Wale has issued a strong public statement calling for an end to what he describes as continuous attacks on his brand, following an apology from media commentator Awal Mohammed.
In the statement, Shatta Wale acknowledged the apology but stressed that persistent criticism and what he sees as deliberate attempts to damage his image must stop.
He noted that for many years, he has spoken for the streets, the youth, and people who feel ignored by society, while also promoting Ghana on the global stage and creating jobs through his work.
He expressed concern that some media personalities, commentators, and influential figures continue to target his name unfairly.
According to him, the issue goes beyond music and touches on respect, fairness, and national maturity.
The musician warned that continued disrespect toward voices that represent ordinary people could have wider consequences.
He emphasised that the Shatta Movement remains strong and organized, and that the patience of the masses should not be taken for granted.
He added that if systems continue to fail the people, they have the ability to organize politically through numbers and truth, not violence or hate.
Shatta Wale clarified that his message was not a threat but a reminder of reality, stressing that attacking a symbol that represents millions of people can have social, cultural, and democratic effects.
He called for respect, fairness, and unity, saying the voice of the people will always rise.
The statement comes after Awal Mohammed recently described Shatta Wale fans during a public discussion as junkies.
The comments triggered backlash from fans of the musician, prompting Awal to later issue an apology.
By: Jacob Aggrey
