Features
False Predictions Of Election Results By Pollsters And Emerging Consequences
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Political pollsters conduct opinion polls for political parties, politicians, advocacy groups, elected and government officials, think tanks and corporations among other groupings. They use their knowledge of statistical analysis, social behaviour and survey methods to question representative samplings of either the general population, or certain demographic groups regarding political issues.
Their job duties among other things, are to conduct research on specific issue or set of issues by reviewing reference material and conferring with clients, create or supervise the creation of carefully worded questions in order to generate clear response and devise strategies regarding how and when the survey will be conducted.
DUTIES OF POLLSTERS
They also perform interviews in person, over the phone, by email or online, analyze survey data, while being sure to adhere to recognised standards regarding the interpretation of complied data, communicate survey results to clients and ensure prompt and accurate assessment of findings.
Indeed, this is a specialised field with a clearly defined aims and objectives that will produce good, perfect and accurate results for clients so that they will depend or rely upon them to plan their strategies to promote their business objectives and other tangible assessment. The practitioners in this noble profession who may be political science degree holders or students pursuing political science in various tertiary institutions and universities as well as well- established institutions, have an in-depth knowledge about election and how it is conducted and above all a deep understanding about the whole process of election, data collection and gathering, interviews among others and are well trained to accomplish the noble task.
POLLSTER IS SPECIALISED JOB
It is important to state that not every person can just stand up and assume the role or title of pollster for the sake of it. You may have a little background on mathematics and data gathering and collection, but that will not guarantee you to be a pollster or to parade yourself as one since it is a specialised area. I am not a pollster and I cannot be one because I don’t have the qualities and pedigree to be one.
I am a journalist, but a very good one though, with the simple task of educating, informing and entertaining people about issues and events happening around them so that they will be well informed in order not to be left behind, fall astray or kept in the dark as far as news is concerned.
Besides, I continue to use my God-given talent to write about all manner of interesting articles for readers to assimilate and enjoy. I criticise when it is due and offer constructive suggestions when and where necessary. This is the type of profession and the job I have been trained to do and I enjoy it each and every day.
SELF-STYLED POLLSTERS
I have decided to go or follow this tangent because of the way some self-styled pollsters are churning out inaccurate results to Ghanaians of late, thus creating tension and anxiety in the political space. I do not intend to mention names of people or individuals involved in this falsehood but it is happening and the recent by-election in Kumawu in the Ashanti Region and Assin North in the Central Region, attested clearly to this fact.
I am not downplaying or degrading every pollster in this country but only cautioning that those who don’t have the pedigree to forecast and predict accurately need to advise themselves because their actions can cause controversy and chaos among the people. These ‘try and error’ predictions must give way to proper and constructive analysis and data collections that are result-oriented.
KUMAWU BY- ELECTION
In the Kumawu by-election that was held on May 23, 2022, it was clear and evident that the New Patriotic Party (NPP) was going to win the election hands down because the area is a stronghold of the party. You don’t need any pollster to predict the outcome of that election. It was a forgone conclusion for the NPP candidate, Ernest Yaw Annim who won by 70 per cent representing 15,264 votes with the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, Kwasi Amankwaa, obtaining 3,723 votes representing 17.29 per cent of the valid votes cast. The only duty of a pollster in the Kumawu by election is to predict whether there were appreciation or depreciation of votes for both candidates.
ASSIN NORTH BY-ELECTION
The Assin North by-election was a different ‘ball game’ altogether. The place had been a swing constituency with both the NDC and the NPP winning at a point in time during the general elections and that made that election very unique in terms of who would emerge the winner. More so, the candidates involved, especially the NDC candidate, James Gyakye Quayson, who was booted out of parliament by a Supreme Court ruling on his dual citizenship, gave cause for those pollsters to do their own predictions. The NDC defied all odds and fielded the embattled Quayson while the NPP as a strategy brought Charles Opoku from the same area where the NDC candidate hails from to provide a stiff opposition.
NPP IN ASSIN NORTH
Prior to that election, the NPP marshalled all resources including excavators and earth moving equipment to the constituency to re-shape some of their bad roads in the midst of rains. An astrotech football pitch had to be commissioned in the rain by the Vice President Alhaji Mahamudu Bawumia, all in an attempt to garner and gather more votes for the NPP candidates. The powerful team led by President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo himself, travelled to the Assin North for a full-scale campaign for their candidate.
NDC AT ASSIN NORTH
The NDC with Its leader, John Dramani Mahama, MPs and party functionaries also went on campaign trail in the Assin North Constituency. Accra was virtually deserted on the election day. Days before the election in the Assin North, pollsters, some of whom were not known, started putting and throwing figures across based on survey they claimed they have conducted in the area, having spoken to a few people in the constituency. Most of these pollsters predicted a done deal for the NPP candidate because of the last-minute campaign by the President which gave them high hopes. However, their predictions did not materialise as Quayson managed to win convincingly with 17,245 votes representing 57.56 percent of the valid votes cast with the NPP Charles Opoku placing second with 12,630 votes representing 42.15 percent.
TRY AND ERROR POLLSTERS
All those scenarios pointed to the fact that the so-called pollsters were only engaged in a ‘try and error’ or speculation business, using the high -profile personalities involved in the campaign exercise as their yardstick, especially in the case of the Assin North by-election. In fact, there had been several occasions in the past when some of these most established institutions have had accurate results in their predictions, but this time round, they got everything wrong.
POLLSTERS AND 2024 ELECTIONS
Very soon, we will be heading towards the presidential and parliamentary elections and these organisations and individual pollsters will start doing their own thing to predict the outcome of the elections. Nobody is baring them from carrying out their individual mandate and there is no law in this country that bars any person or group of persons from carrying out election surveys and predicting the outcomes. However, in doing this self-assigned job, one need to be careful and circumspect about these outcomes in order not to deceive and cause disaffection among the populace. It is interesting to note that even so-called pastors, evangelists, prophets of doom and ‘what not’, have joined the fray of pollsters, predicting and churning out election results which eventually turned out to be false.
NPP FLAGBEARERSHIP RACE
Shortly, the NPP will be electing its flag-bearer in a hectic contest involving 10 contestants namely, Alhaji Mahamudu Bawumia, the current Vice President of Ghana, Mr. Allan Kwadwo Kyerematen, Boakye Agyarko, Kwabena Agyei Agyepong, Francis Addai-Nimoh, Dr Kofi Konadu Apraku, Dr. Owusu Afriyie Akoto, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, Joe Ghartey and Kwadwo Poku. All these contestants are reputable and qualified personalities who have what it takes to be the presidential nominee for the NPP. However, it is only one who will get the nod to lead the party in the 2024 presidential election.
As usual, the so-called pollsters, religious groupings and forecasters will be at their wit end doing their own thing and predicting the outcome of the primaries in what they termed data collection from delegates who will be casting their ballots to pick one among the lot. When they fail in their attempt with their “try and error” business, they will then turn to the supporters of the NPP and apologise for their ineffectiveness. We need to thread cautiously in this regard.
Contact email/WhatsApp of author: ataani2000@yahoo.com 0277753946/028933366
By Charles Neequaye
Features
Confronting newborn abandonment in Ghana: When a cry for help is heard in a dustbin – Part 2
The root causes: It is never just one reason
My years of counselling at CPAC show me abandonment is rarely an act of malice. It is the tragic endpoint of seven overwhelming distresses:
1. Severe maternal mental illness —The hidden emergency
a) Clinical Postpartum Depression (PPD): This is far beyond “baby blues.” It is a severe mood disorder that can appear weeks to months after birth. Due to a massive drop in hormones, extreme sleep deprivation, and emotional exhaustion, the mother feels deep sadness, worthlessness, and complete emotional numbness towards her baby. Picture: A new mother sits by her bed all day, staring blankly. Her baby cries for hours, but she cannot lift her hands to carry the baby. She whispers, “This baby would be better off without me.” She does not hate the baby; she feels she has completely failed as a mother.
b) Peripartum Psychosis (Postpartum Psychosis): This is a psychiatric emergency. Rare but extremely dangerous, appearing suddenly within the first 2-3 weeks after delivery. The mother completely loses touch with reality. She hears commanding voices telling her to abandon the baby, or believes the baby is possessed by an evil spirit or is a “spirit child” who will bring a curse. Picture: A mother genuinely believes she heard a voice saying, “Leave this child at the crossroads at midnight or your family will die.” She abandons the baby not out of hatred, but because her broken mind believes she is obeying a higher spiritual order to save her family.
c) Pre-existing untreated Schizophrenia: This is a chronic, severe mental disorder that existed before the pregnancy. The stress of pregnancy and labour shatters her fragile coping. She suffers from paranoid delusions — believing people want to poison her and the baby — flat affect (zero facial expression), and grossly disorganised thinking, making it impossible to plan how to feed or clean a baby. Picture: A young woman whose family called her illness “spiritual attack” instead of taking her for medication wanders away after delivery, completely forgetting she even gave birth, leaving the infant behind.
2. Extreme socio-economic deprivation: For many girls in some parts of Ghana such as Kasoa, Madina, or Bekwai, poverty is not a statistic; it is a daily panic. No money for antenatal care, no money for hospital delivery, no money for baby diapers or formula. When a mother cannot feed herself, the thought of feeding another mouth feels impossible. Some mothers say, “I left her where someone richer would find her, because I could not watch her starve to death in my hands.” It is a distorted act of survival.
3. Intense societal stigma and shame: In Ghana, pregnancy outside marriage, teenage pregnancy, or pregnancy from rape can bring extreme family rejection. The girl is called “spoilt,” beaten, banned from church, or sacked from school. The fear of bringing shame to the family name is heavier than the fear of police. So she hides the pregnancy for 9 months, delivers alone, and abandons in secret to protect her family’s “honour.”
4. Paternal abandonment — The Man Who Ran Away: Behind almost every abandoned baby is a man who vanished. He says, “It is not mine,” or “Abort it,” and switches off his phone. The mother is left utterly isolated — no emotional, financial, or social support. She is criminalised alone, but the abandonment started with him. Psychological research shows paternal denial is one of the strongest predictors of maternal panic and newborn abandonment.
5. Substance abuse disorders: Alcohol, tramadol, and other drug addiction impair the brain’s executive functioning — the ability to plan, judge consequences, and process emotions. A mother struggling with addiction may give birth in a highly intoxicated or withdrawal state, unable to comprehend the needs of the newborn, leading to neglect and eventual abandonment.
6. The spirit child cultural phenomenon and superstition: In some remote pockets of Northern Ghana and even in few parts of Central and Ashanti regions, public health research shows babies born with congenital deformities, severe disabilities, or whose mothers die in childbirth are branded as “spirit children” or cursed. In extreme instances, families, under cultural pressure, mandate that such babies be exposed or abandoned at shrines or bushes. This is not mental illness, but a harmful cultural belief system that still kills.
The invisible wounds
On the baby: Risk of death from hypothermia, sepsis, and infection. Survivors suffer Anaclitic Depression and Failure to Thrive due to lack of touch. As adults, they battle Reactive Attachment Disorder, chronic mistrust, and identity crisis — “Why did my mother leave me in a dustbin?”
On the mother: Lifelong hidden grief, intense guilt, chronic PTSD, depression, and elevated suicide risk. A prison cell does not heal this.
On the nation: Overburdened orphanages like Osu Children’s Home, draining health budgets, and overworked Social Welfare officers.
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“There is no one righteous, not even one; there is no one who understands; no one seeks God. But now a righteousness from God, apart from law, has been made known, to which the Law and the Prophets testify. This righteousness from God comes through faith in Jesus Christ, to all who believe. For there is no difference; – Rom. 3:10, 21-22. (NIV)
Introduction
Dictionaries define righteousness as “behavior that is morally justifiable or right.” Such behavior is characterized by accepted standards of morality, justice, virtue, or uprightness. The Bible’s standard of human righteousness is God’s own perfection in every attribute, every attitude, every behavior, and every word. Thus, God’s laws, as given in the Bible, both describe His own character and constitute the plumb line by which He measures human righteousness.
The bad news is that true and perfect righteousness is not possible for man to attain on his own; the standard is simply too high. The good news is that true righteousness is possible for mankind, but only through the cleansing of sin by Jesus Christ and the indwelling of the Holy Spirit. We have no ability to achieve righteousness in and of ourselves. But Christians possess the righteousness of Christ, because “ For He made Him who knew no sin to be sin for us, that we might become the righteousness of God in Him.” – 2 Corinthians 5:21. This is an amazing truth. On the cross, Jesus exchanged our sin for His perfect righteousness so that we can one day stand before God and He will see not our sin, but the holy righteousness of the Lord Jesus.
Establishing our hearts in righteousness
“Keep your heart with all diligence, for out of it spring the issues of life” – Proverbs 4:23
According to the above verse in Proverbs, our heart is the source of our life. Our life flows from our heart. The Holy Spirit resides in the spirit of the born again Christian. So there is a strong influence of the Holy Spirit in the heart of the new-born Christian. But our heart is also comprised of our soul. As Christians we can choose to focus our soul on the Lord, or on evil things. If we focus on corrupt, immoral, and evil things our heart will be affected detrimentally. It will cause our heart to be crooked or wicked, instead of straight or righteous. So the Scripture says to keep, or guard, our heart. It is wise to protect our heart as what we allow to dominate our heart will inevitably become the fruit, or influence the outcome, of our lives.
One way to approach life is to continually ask the question, “How will this decision or action affect my heart?” Everything we do, every thought we entertain, everything we watch, read, or listen to, shapes our heart. Therefore, the future prosperity of our life will flow from how well we care for our heart.
Think of everything you do, every moment of time, as a seed. We have been given responsibility for choosing which seeds to plant in our heart. What will you grow in the garden of your heart? What seeds will you choose? Our heart is our garden, and our life is the fruit of our garden. So next time you are tempted to dwell on a bad thought, think, “Do I want this seed to grow and manifest in my life?” Next time you are tempted to indulge in a sinful action ask yourself, “Do I want the extension, or fruit, of this sinful action to be what I am known for?”
God gives us the freedom to plant whatever we like in our garden. God loves us regardless of the good or bad choices we may make in our lives. You may be reaping the fruit of some poor choices right now. And God is still saying, “I love you.” But He has wise advice for us; He desires we have a good life. He says, “Guard you heart with all diligence.” This Hebrew word translated ‘diligence’ conveys the meanings of: prison and guard (ibid). A superintendant of a prison is very particular as to what goes in and out of his prison. A prison has very tight security. Just as a superintendant watches over his prison, so we should also supervise our heart (our lives). We should exercise meticulous security with regards to what enters into our heart. Actually, even what comes out of it, as the Scripture says, “ Wherefore, my beloved brethren, let every man be swift to hear, slow to speak, slow to wrath” – James 1:19, as “For out of the abundance of the heart the mouth speaks.” –Matthew 12:34b.
If what goes into, and what comes out of, our heart determines the success of our lives, what is the first important principle to establish in our heart? “In righteousness you shall be established;” – Isaiah 54:14
Righteousness is the key foundational truth we need to first establish in our heart. Jesus said, “But seek first the kingdom of God and His righteousness, and all these things shall be added to you.” –Matthew 6:33. Notice Jesus said, “His righteousness”, not our own righteousness. We have to seek and understand God’s righteousness. Isaiah 54:14 says, “Their righteousness is of me, saith the Lord.” God’s righteousness comes from God, not from within us. Humans cannot make themselves God’s righteousness, as all humans have sinned and are therefore inferior to God. God’s righteousness is a gift from God: “ For He made Him who knew no sin to be sin for us, that we might become the righteousness of God in Him.” – 2 Corinthians 5:21
Righteousness, or right standing with God, has been attained for us through the exchange Jesus made on our behalf. Jesus took our sin and gave us His righteousness. God’s righteousness is imparted to us when we are made a new creature in Christ – 2 Corinthians 5:17. This righteousness is a gift from God and undeserved by us: “For if by the one man’s offense death reigned through the one, much more those who receive abundance of grace and of the gift of righteousness will reign in life through the One, Jesus Christ.”- Romans 5:17
Through our faith in Jesus’ blood, shed to remit our sins – Romans 3:25, God imparts righteousness to us by His grace. We actually become a new righteous creation, fully identifying in Jesus’ death, burial, resurrection and ascension. This is the foundational miracle we need to understand and have established in our heart. All the other miraculous promises of God come the same way, by God’s grace through faith. Righteousness must be established in our heart for us to truly have faith to receive our rich inheritance in Christ. Jesus has been made unto us righteousness (1 Corinthians 1:30). We are now “For all the promises of God in Him are Yes, and in Him Amen, to the glory of God through us”. – 2 Corinthians 1:20
Establishing our minds in righteousness
God expects that, when we accept Jesus Christ as our Lord and Savior, we will be radically changed. In Romans 12:2 He tells us, And do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind,
This transformation is to be a metamorphosis, of a magnitude at least comparable to that by which a caterpillar becomes a butterfly. He expects us to become totally different.
Scripture uses many different images to express the change that should occur: We become “a new creation; old things have passed away; behold, all things have become new.“ – 2 Cor 5:17. It is almost as if we become a new species. Scripture speaks of the “first Adam” who was earthly and fell into sin, and the “second Adam” (Jesus Christ) who was sinless and holy – Rom. 5:12-19; 1 Cor 15:44-49.
We are “made new in the attitude of our minds” – Eph. 4:23.
We “put off our old self” and “put on the new self” – Eph. 4:22,24; Col 3:9-10.
We “live by the Spirit” and not by the flesh – Gal. 5:16; Rom 8:13.
We become “instruments of righteousness” rather than “instruments of wickedness” – Rom. 6:13.
Each of these metaphors, in a different way, emphasizes the magnitude of the change that is expected. Each is dramatic and astonishing in itself; their cumulative effect is even more powerful. We are talking about a tremendous transformation. It should be visible to others, but its internal effect should be far greater than what others can perceive.
The goal of this transformation
What is the goal of this metamorphosis? Scripture states it in a number of different ways, which overlap and can be seen as different ways of expressing the same basic concept. Scripture often does this, because our minds are inadequate to comprehend, and our language inadequate to express, the full scope of God’s revelation to us.
To be continued!
Stay blessed!
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Email: saltnlightministries@gmail.com
Website: saltandlightministriesgh.org
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