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Enimil Ashon:Delegates vs grassroots: NPP’s puzzle?
Like all human endeavours, political polls have often gone wrong, especially if decisions about sampling, calculation of the chi-square, margin of error etc. were not well handled.
Because of this, I do not swear by or put store-by pollsters’ results all of the time. The fact is, they could even be manipulated, with figures cooked to deceive, depending on the interest or biases of the pollster.
In my life, I have seen poll figures computed even before sampling was determined.
In the weeks leading up to the November 2016 election in the United States, polls across the country predicted an easy sweep for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Everyone knows what happened. Donald Trump won.
In that election, Sam Wang, a neuroscience Professor at Princeton University and co-founder of Princeton Election Consortium, which analyses election polling, called the race for Clinton. He was so confident that he made a bet to eat an insect if Trump won more than 240 electoral votes. Hilary lost and Wang did what he promised. Live on CNN, he swallowed a cricket.
Occasionally, even here in Ghana, we have seen polls and pollsters whose predictions have been close to perfect. Ben Ephson’s claim to fame is through polling, not journalism.
There have been many instances when, with or without polls, the results are predictable. The latest is this year’s NDC presidential primaries: even a JHS student knew Mahama was way ahead.
This weekend’s super delegates conference of the NPP to determine which five offer themselves at the November 4 primaries seems to be a different kettle of fish. There has been consistency in the predictions since the early part of the year, with the latest putting Bawumia ahead by more than 70%.
Are they to be believed? A year ago, when some UK-based pollsters came out with Bawumia ahead, the Alan Campaign rubbished it, claiming that the polling company did not even exist.
Will Ghana wake up on Sunday morning to a shock? Personally, I wish to God that three out of Kennedy Agyapong, Kwabena Agyepong, Joe Ghartey, and Dr Afriyie Akoto will be among the top five. They have really been in the trenches and looked the delegates eyeball to eyeball, campaigning on their vision.
Win or lose, Kwabena Agyepong has won respect as a fiery speaker. Any other candidate who wins ultimately in November should recruit his talent and capabilities as the NPP Spokesperson.
Will Alan be fourth time lucky? Against Akufo-Addo’s 1,096 votes (47.97%) in the 2007 primaries, Alan obtained 32.32% with 738 votes. The 2010 election was one in which Alan should not have run. To a man (and woman) the NPP was unanimous behind Akufo Addo. It was actually providential that Alan managed 19.91% of the 2,293 votes.
Is it Kyeremateng’s turn this year? Will the voters sympathize with him?
In this 2023 campaigning, credit must be given where it is due. It goes to the Bawumia Campaign. (Note: I am not saying he will win). The team has been strategic. As one of them said on radio some time in June, they have been campaigning since 2021.
Evidence of their work is seen in three impressive achievements. One is their penetration into Ashanti which, until early this year, was widely thought to be 90% Alan. Two, they have managed to grab attention of the predominantly Christian voter population. Count the number of times Bawumia has been in and out of Christian churches, starting from Father Campbell’s church.
Of course, some fundamentalist Christians were on social media saying they do not see how Christianity can be said to worship the same God as any other religion that does not believe that God is in three persons: Father, Son and Holy Spirit, or believe that Jesus Christ rose from the dead.
But the election is marketing, and in marketing, there is nothing wrong with claiming to be more Catholic than the Pope. Didn’t the sages say that all is fair in love and war?
A third and most significant Bawumia Campaign achievement, at least for the primaries, has been their ability to win the majority of MPs and Ministers to their side. The Bawumia strategists have also succeeded in shooting down (at least, that is what it seems) the “Alan, edru wo so slogan.
The question, however, is: are all these polls and external showings, so far, a true reflection of what is actually happening among the delegates? Twice, last year and this year, the polls have been unanimous that while “official delegates” will decide for Bawumia, the rank and file of NPP, from Assini through Walawale to Zuarungu, favour Alan as flagbearer.
This is the NPP conundrum. It is what driving the suspicion that November may be significantly different from August.
Will tomorrow ever come?
Source:Enimil Ashon
The New Patriotic Party (NPP) has urged the government to place all 54,985 candidates affected by the 2026 Basic Education Certificate Examination (BECE) placement exercise in schools and publish the final outcome.
The party says the government must ensure that the affected candidates secure actual school places rather than merely being allowed to access the self-placement portal.
In a statement signed by the Chairman of the NPP Policy Co-ordination Committee, Kojo Oppong Nkrumah, the party expressed concern about the situation facing the candidates.
The NPP said the government had announced that 53,887 of the affected candidates could use the self-placement system after initially being told that they had not qualified for secondary school.
It, however, argued that access to the portal did not guarantee that candidates would secure their preferred schools or programmes.
“Ghanaian parents and candidates will judge the resolution of the challenge by one thing only: how many of the original 54,985 are sitting in a classroom, not how many were allowed to open a website,” the statement noted.
The party said the government’s own figures showed that the country had 859,828 declared vacancies for 623,072 BECE candidates.
It explained that the main challenge was the concentration of demand in a small number of highly subscribed schools.
The NPP noted that 313,283 candidates selected Category A schools as their first choice, while those schools had 76,417 declared vacancies.
It therefore called on the government to explore ways to improve schools with available spaces, including providing teachers, laboratories and better programmes.
The party urged the government to use the 85 private schools participating in the Free SHS programme to absorb candidates who remained without placements.
The NPP further called for clarification of the rule and pass mark used for this year’s placement exercise, saying parents were entitled to know the standard before their children sat the examination.
It urged the government to take urgent action to ensure that the affected candidates were not left behind in the transition to secondary education.
By: Jacob Aggrey
General Secretary of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), Justin Kodua Frimpong, has filed his nomination to contest the position of General Secretary again as the party begins its rebuilding efforts ahead of the 2028 general elections.
He was accompanied by party stalwarts and supporters who were in high spirits, expressing confidence that he is the right person to hold the position.
Speaking after filing his nomination, Mr Kodua Frimpong assured the rank and file of the party that he would not disappoint them.
“I can assure you that the faith the rank and file of the party have had in me, I will never disappoint them,” he said.
He also pledged to run a clean campaign devoid of personal attacks.
“I can assure you that our internal campaign will be devoid of personal attacks,” he told his fellow contestants and the rank and file of the party as he seeks to retain his position.
His tenure has seen the party through the 2024 general elections, where the NPP lost power to the National Democratic Congress (NDC) after eight years in government.
The party is currently in a rebuilding phase, with internal elections scheduled to elect new national executives to lead its reorganization towards the 2028 polls.
The General Secretary position is considered one of the most influential in the party’s administrative structure, responsible for the day-to-day running of the party secretariat and implementation of party decisions.
By Edem Mensah-Tsotorme
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